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Poll Shows Post-Primary Gains for Toft

WPA Opinion Research released results of a poll of 5th Legislative District voters conducted earlier in September.

This story has been updated to include the funding source of the poll.

State senate candidate Brad Toft climbed nearly six percentage points from the August primary according to a political poll published last week.

A poll conducted by WPA Opinion Research, a national public opinion firm based in Washington, D.C. that conducts polls for GOP candidates, was released Sept. 16, showing Toft with 38 percent and Mullet with 35 percent. The Toft for Senate campaign commissioned the poll.

“Toft has a three-point lead over Mark Mullet,” reported Byron Allen in the findings issued from the Sacramento, CA office of WPA, “The GOP has a built-in advantage in the 5th Legislative District as the Republican performs well on both the generic state senate ballot and the gubernatorial ballot.”

According to a press release announcing the results of the poll, the new 5th District boundaries established after redistricting, Republicans are now favored 46 percent to 42 percent for Democrats, with 12 percent undecided. This is a 2 percent increase from previous polling data. Precincts in fiscally conservative Black Diamond, Maple Valley, Carnation and Duval joined the district, while neighborhoods in Sammamish moved to the 45th district.

“These new data show my messages of economic growth, funding education first and responsible tax policy are catching on with the voters,” Toft said in a press release announcing the poll results. “Although the opposition has spent a good deal of time and money tossing unsubstantiated claims toward me and my family, the electorate is dismissing the tactics as mere politics.”

The senate race in the 5th Legislative District is proving to be one of the three hotly contested races in the state. The final election results could determine the leadership and control of the upper house in the legislature.

The survey comprised more than 300 likely general election voters in the 5th District between September 5-6. The margin of error is equal to 5.7%.

Editor's note: Information from the Brad Toft campaign, which paid for the poll. A spokesman for the campaign said to achieve a smaller margin of error, such as one sees in national polls, would have required a much larger sample, less common in polls for state races.

Adam October 01, 2012 at 11:56 PM
The article doesn't say whether the Toft campaign paid for the poll or not or what the question asked was. Polls paid for by political parties or candidates, if that is the case here, should be viewed skeptically, especially by the media...
Jeanne Gustafson October 02, 2012 at 05:54 AM
Adam, thanks for your comment, and your criticism is certainly not without merit. The editor's note, which originally identified the Toft Campaign as the source of of the information, should also have spelled out clearly that the campaign paid for the poll, a fact which it did not seek to hide in any way. I have asked the campaign to provide the questions used in the poll, and will add that information when I receive it. Thanks again, I think you made a very good point. That fact alone doesn't invalidate the results, but the source of information is very important, indeed. If you do know of any independent sources commissioning polls on Sammamish or Issaquah races or issues, please let me know.
G.Teller October 12, 2012 at 10:52 PM
Read the comical press release carefully. "Surging" by plus or minus 6 with a margin of error, plus or minus 6. He's "surging" in his own mind. Oh and I'd believe every word. He does have two degrees, you know: Politician claims to have "executive degree in finance" from top university after attending 3-day seminar: http://bit.ly/TmxstM Much more efficient than going to college for four years.

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