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Health & Fitness

Market entering "exuberance" stage

Interesting article out today from Bloomberg News that states that individuals are pouring money into the stock market based on increased “confidence” in stocks. Also, long-time market strategist Lazslo Berinyi of Berinyi, recently stated that the stock market is entering the fourth and final “exuberance” stage of the bull market.

What’s the point? “Contrarian” market lore claims that individual investors get back in to the market near the top, when their confidence has increased and they get tired of watching the market rise without benefitting personally; in other words, they start to react emotionally (in this case, greed).  Unfortunately, the “lore” has some validity (it also works in reverse at or near the bottom of a bear market).  This was one of the factors that led us to slightly reduce our equity exposure in Q3. Truth is, no one knows what the stock market will do, particularly in the near term. We believe the best way to manage wealth through the ups and downs of the stock market is through a disciplined approach that downplays the emotional aspect of investing, reduces the temptation to “time” the market, and focuses on appropriate portfolio diversification and fundamentally-based decision making. Studies show that properly diversified portfolios provide superior risk-adjusted returns over the long term compared with overly concentrated portfolios.   

Link: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/individuals-pile-stocks-pros-bull-083111149.html

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